Iowa: Youth vs Christianists

Voter turnout was stupendous for both Democrats and increased for Republicans.

Obama’s victory was a youth vote victory.  New voters, young voters, turned out and spoke brilliantly for change and authenticity.

Huckabee’s victory came largely from evangelicals coming out in droves.

Right now on MSNBC, Buchanan is calling Hickabbe a centrist.  Some Republicans are desperate to turn their religious extremist candidate into a viable option come the general.

The battle for the Presidency in 2008 is turning into a battle between those who would challenge lobbyists and start to heal the bloody divisions sowed by Bush, and those who would exploit those divisions to move us towards a theocracy.

This is going to be quite a fight.

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12 Responses

  1. Wow, I agree.

    Obama’s was a popular vote win, while Chuckabee’s was a religious coup de grace.

    However, I don’t think Huckabee – if he gets the Presidential bid (which I doubt because I think Romney is going to win everywhere else) – will have a chance in Hell against the popular vote. People are already discouraged by the present Administration who is using religious spin to explain their irrational decision-making. To elect a Huckabee would be encouraging more of the same.

  2. I don’t know if Romney is going to win. He has some seriously fired up opposition in NH. NH is going to be a pretty wild race on the Republican side. I do think for all the evangelicals Huckabee encourages to come out in vote, he’d encourage more secular Americans to vote for the opposition.

  3. At this point, I don’t think anyone can make a prediction as to what will happen in the Republican race. I literally don’t see anyone as having a chance at winning the nomination. If Obama had lost Iowa, I would have given John McCain a good shot; but since Obama will most certainly pull independent votes away from Senator McCain, it doesn’t look like a McCain victory is possible.

  4. Hmmm. That’s a very good point Jamelle. I hadn’t thought about how McCain might suffer from Obama’s victory.

    I was watching msnbc tonight, and they interviewed Republicans at a McCain event, who said they weren’t voting for him, but against Hillary. I think even if Obama had lost McCain would still see some loss in that regard. Which leaves… who?
    Perhaps Huckabee will pull a surprise win and lock the nomination. If he won NH, his momentum would be furious.
    Then again, Romney has been holding onto some serious digits in the face of what is really an onslaught of negative media coverage and competition endorsements. He’s painted correctly as a phony, and is still doing pretty well.

    Hard to predict, but fun to try.

  5. That was my point of reasoning behind my Romney prediction. Despite all the mistakes and problems he’s had in the last year, he still holds very high support and numbers in the East and South. Huckabee does not – in fact, Huckabee is behind McCain in the South around fourth place.

    In fact, I think it is McCain and Giuliani that are going to pull votes away from Huckabee in NH, giving Romney the lead. Giuliani has always been that spoiler against the smaller candidate in the East. The next few moves are into states that actually hurt Huckabee – South Carolina may totally destroy any momentum that Mike has and give Romney the boost he needs to move forward.

  6. If the “Hickabee” was a typo for the i being so close to the u it doesn’t matter, that is the best name for him yet. Suckabee, Schmuckabee, Fuckabee he’s going to be more of the same if he gets in. I hope he doesn’t. I guess if it comes down to Obama or Hicabee, Obama got my vote.

  7. mcclaud,

    Romney does appear to have staying power. But you know who else did? Rudy. In the face of a torrent of history: corruption, personal scandals, how he actually handled 9/11, etc. Then suddenly he began to drop. Romney is by no means immune.

    If I had to bet, I’d say McCain will take NH, in spite of losing votes to Obama. On the Republican side, the next really big race will be Florida, barring an upset in NH.

    Michael D,

    Huckabee would be a damn frightening President.

  8. I’d also say McCain would have a good chance to win NH if Huckabee wasn’t running. But the two steal the votes from the others.

    It doesn’t help that Giuliani is also very strong in the East. At this point, I see those three actually hurting each other all the way to the last caucus.

    Romney’s base is not really dependent on the same voters as the other three, so he seems to be pretty strong.

    Either way, I’m not really caring. If Huckabee does get the GOP nod, they doom their chances to win the 2008 Presidential election.

  9. Again, a strong Obama victory in New Hampshire would probably have the – beneficial – effect of denying McCain a victory there by drawing away all of the independents.

  10. mcclaud,
    I do care, because we are faced with some terrible options if the Republicans win. Will we get the authoritarian Rudy? The theocrat Huckabee? Or Bush’s presumptive, desperate heir: McCain? Plus the nominee will determine much of the Democrat’s approach, which could have interesting effects on local races. A race in which obedience, liberty and privacy issues take top rung would bring different people to the polls than one that emphasizes reproductive choice, gay rights, and separation of church and state. This could have an impact on state offices and ballot measures.

    Jamelle,
    Hmmm. That could work against Obama, but I think you are right, and it will more likely work against McCain.

  11. How could it work against Obama?

  12. Independents who might have gone for Obama might see that McCain’s lead is endangered by Romney’s returns in Iowa and Wyoming, and decide that race is more important to weigh in on. I think that is less likely, but that’s pure speculation on my part. What I can say, is I think NH independents (and Republicans and Democrats with independent streaks) strongly prefer McCain and Obama. I also think the closest to each, Romney and Clinton, are both despised in some measure.

    However I have seen Republicans interviewed who are planning on crashing the Democratic primary to keep Clinton out, but no similar action from the Democrats. So while it is more likely Obama will reap the benefit, one cannot be certain.

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